Anyone with less than 3000 - 4000 hrs can probably forget about the majors for another five years - unless those are military hours. If the Big Three actually execute the downsizing that they are predicting, it may be three years before they get their own furloughed people back who already have seniority numbers. During that time the. US military will pump out an additional 1100-1200 pilots annually. Most of them will be more competitive than regional pilots, the more so because they will have had another three years of seasoning themselves.

So yes, if those furloughs actually DO happen, this could easily be a four or five year career setback for a lot of people, more so for furloughed regional guys. That would pretty well obsolete Aviate, flow programs, sponsored RTP programs, signing bonuses...etc.