I actually think it won’t be nearly as bad as these worst-case scenarios, but the Big Three are getting hurt badly if there are any furloughs at all. Take Delta... those new A220s. Pretty much everyone in them is furlough or at least downgrade bait. And yet not a single senior guy who would be displaced into these machines is type rated in them. My guess is that the Big Three will end up downsized to a degree as they try to consolidate their fleets around fewer leet types while at the same time SWA and the smaller single type airlines F9, NK, and whatever they eventually designate Breeze to be, will be trying to gain domestic market share.

SWA is likely to have its pick of the military guys coming out as well as the junior furloughed from the Big Three. The others are unlikely to pick up any furloughed (knowing they are going to eventually lose them) so NK, F9, and Breeze are going to wind up with the pick of the regional flyers for awhile.

The only way that doesn’t hold true IMO is if international flying makes an unexpectedly robust comeback, but even if it does, trimming their fleets is going to cause hiring at the Big Three to be low enough I don’t think they’ll see the need for cadet or flow programs or the like.