Originally Posted by cezzna

My take is nobody knows what and when things open. I don’t think many businesses can survive an extended shutdown. The FED can print more money but this could be the straw that breaks the camels back for the big ‘haircut’. The entire western world is collapsing under the weight of over promised entitlements and ****ty monetary policy.

Can the house of cards go back up and the Dow push 30K? It’s possible, but not likely. I think there will be a marginal sect of society, guessing 10-30% who will effectively never travel, eat out, go out again. An entire generation of shut-ins if you will. Hell young kids wouldn’t work before, the timid ones never will again.

So my macroeconomic forecast is:
​​​​​​—full on economic collapse: 4:1
– protracted deep economic recession 2:1
– house of cards blazing, Dow hits 30k 4:1