I know that no one commissioning source is more protected from another nor more vulnerable for that matter. As far as separations, as mentioned AFPC has seemed to start w/ waiving committments for overmanned career fields and year groups, then through money at it, then had boards to reduce (so far the boards in AF have been for LTs). My wife took the VSP last year. For a current view of AFPC's idea of what is over and under manned, check out this website.
http://ask.afpc.randolph.af.mil/forc...icerMatrix.xls
There's also more info at
http://ask.afpc.randolph.af.mil/Site...ty_Officer.asp under Force Shaping - which is the new name for RIFs.