Just to put numbers to this using the most basic equation:


people with the virus * avg number infected by each person ^ (cycle of infections)


Assuming 1.5M have the virus, if, on average, 2 people only spread the virus to 1 person (R0=0.5), and a cycle of infection takes 2 weeks, the virus will be gone in 3 months


Right now the R0 in parts of New England was 0.7, meaning the virus should be gone in 4-5 months.


If the R0 becomes 1, the virus doesn't go away until herd immunity, either from the entire population getting and surviving the virus or a vaccine. With 330 million people that would take roughly 4 years without a vaccine.


If the CDC numbers are right, then the R0 with no mitigation is 3.8-8.9:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

And everyone would get the virus within the next month. Again, that's with no mitigation, no distancing, no masks, no additional hand washing, no awareness, everybody talking to everybody and breathing down their necks for hours at a time.


Once again, really back-of-the-napkin, caveman math that overlooks tons of crucial variables, but I think it underscores how important it is to not spread the virus, which starts with the individual. I still think that the vast majority of us don't have any firsthand, or even second hand experience, with this virus and if we keep the R0 around 0.7 then we likely never would, but because so many people are taking an attitude that ranges from "complacent" to "I'm so confident it's a conspiracy by ::insert any political opponent:: that I'm gonna do whatever I want to stick it to the man," plus massive protests that couldn't have come at a worse time, I won't be surprised if we get a spike in a couple weeks that sets us way back and, in no way, will help air travel recover.


Also, talking with the fiance (epidemiologist) she told me that asymptomatic people are definitely contagious, but because they don't cough or sneeze as much, they spread the virus around less. Really common sense, so I'm not sure why the WHO didn't just say that. But it seems like they've done and said a lot of things flippantly over the course of this.