Originally Posted by
Knobcrk1
Seriously? Lockdown was the only way for the R count to go down quicker. Look at NY which supposedly is the lowest number, because they had the most number of cases nobody was going out anymore. Look at the numbers now. For this R value to go down quickly below one it has to be a shut down, that’s not a hypothesis it’s a fact...
Utter nonsense. There are any number of scenarios where a quicker decrease in the r value was possible, including what always happened with chickenpox in the era before there was an immunization for it. Everybody got it, everybody became immune, and you wouldn’t see it again until you bred up a new crop of susceptibles.
For that matter, you could make the case that the Rt in New York has gone down BECAUSE THEIR EFFORTS WERE INEFFECTIVE.
They have had far higher percentages infected than anyone else and even a month ago 15% of the NYC population had antibodies against COVID-19. The more non susceptibles you have walking around the more Rt is likely to go down. Of course they paid for that with a massively greater fatality rate than anyone else:
