Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Not necessarily.
70+ seaters are larger and newer, and thus more expensive to buy, own, and operate. They are also less likely to be paid off (most 50-seaters are paid off).
Market conditions could definitely preclude replacing 50's with 70's in some or many markets. A lot of 50-seat destinations are not THAT far from hubs or bigger towns. A fare increase will cause some folks to drive to a different airport... the bigger the increase, the more folks bail.
My parents live in a small town a couple hours from the hub. Whether they fly or drive depends on the going rate for tickets, and changes with the season.
In that case, airlines either use turboprops or drop the service... they won't do it at a loss. Turboprops might tilt the scales, or might not. They burn less gas, but new ones still cost a lot of money, and unless you get 50-seaters, many pilot groups will want 70-seat jet pay for 70 seat prop-jobs. In the old days, the obviously-inferior prop pilots got paid less, even for the same seats, but I doubt anybody would put up with that today.
We shall see what pilots will put up with. I expect to see some startups with some fairly poor compensation packages and QoL rules after a few thousand pilots are on the streets. Hopefully I will be pleasantly surprised but I doubt it. Rational actors will take the best job they can find rather than deplete savings unnecessarily. Some will choose jobs outside of aviation while they await recall, others may find even at reduced wages their ATP remains their best meal ticket.
Supply and demand have worked in our favor the past few years. Now it is going to turn against us. The question is how badly and for how long.