Originally Posted by
Dobbs18
well they, APA and company forecasts from Sept vacancy, say we will be about 1,327 pilots overstaffed for summer of 2021. I havent seen any adjustments from those numbers yet, so that to me is the bar right now...hopefully with improved demand and continued LOAs that number can keep going down! If i had to put money down on a bet, which I dont want to, I'd say 1,000 right now. Mostly because its just a round number, but really i have no *******ing clue.
The 1000 pilots overstaffed for summer 2021 is about the same number that will retire in the second half of summer 2021 and 2022. Since furloughs really don't make sense if they are less than 18 months, I would guess that being overstaffed for summer of 2021 would mean that we will be understaffed for the summer of 2022.
If they furlough this October, they will need to start the hiring and training process again less than a year later since it takes several months from starting the hiring to actually having a line pilot. Not sure that would make sense.