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Old 06-17-2020 | 06:36 AM
  #38  
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rickair7777
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
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Originally Posted by Cyio
What percentage of flying has to come back to make this ship stay afloat without shedding half the workforce?
Probably 50%. My gut feel (from listening to everything managers are saying, and historical precedent) is airlines will probably staff mid-term for demand + 10%. Maybe +20% if they want to be prepared to grab market share if the recovery takes off.

That's front-line employees. Likely different for overhead employees, typically if they were running fat they can cut 30%-ish before they get to the meat-and-bone needed to run an airline. Unless they were running lean to begin with, but most majors probably weren't in the boom times.

They would probably cut fewer pilots, percentage-wise. Between retirements, and costs of furlough, recall, and associated bump-n-flush training, it's going to be cheaper to carry extra pilots for a while.

I'd guess other front-line employees are getting the weed-whacker on 01 Oct. They probably staff those for Nov/Dec, since they can bring them back quickly in 2021 as things pick up.

That's for majors. Regionals it all depends on your contract(s)... anything from growth to liquidation, depending.
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