*too late to edit...

ISL arbitrations are anything but predictable though. As much as long/tall fences make sense to me and you, arbitrators have been hesitant to use fences recently (IIRC they even stated so in the UAL/CAL ISL), instead tweaking other levers to get a desired result.

It's a waste of time and effort right now to dive into this rabbit hole, however, it's important to understand the underlying arguments that prevailed in the UAL/CAL ISL since they would likely serve as the framework for any future arbitration. The big flashing items I see are 1) Accurate seniority list at Merger Closing Date, 2) Stovepiped Status and Category of pilots at Merger Closing Date, and 3) Stovepiped Longevity of pilots at Merger Closing Date. Two very important concepts to understand are 'Stovepipe' lists & 'snapshot date'.

In the UAL/CAL ISL the arbitrators chose as blend of 65% Status & Category and 35% longevity. They pretty much tweaked the percentages until they found an overall 'fair' result. Regardless, it's obvious that S&C are HUGE factors in any ISL. Due to stovepiping the lists, an individual pilots position is irrelevant - the total number of positions in the airline is what is relevant. This series of Displacements is absolutely decimating those positions. FWIW you can google UAL CAL ISL award and read the actual arbitrators ruling.