Look I get it, the points guy and this article have contained questionable info and dubious authors in the past. Look into the financial data this guy is sharing though. That in itself is solid info.

At the end of the day the metrics of the recovery and what may or may not trigger a bankruptcy are very 3 Dimensional. And a lot of the posts on this forum contain a 2D view of things. We’re mostly pilots, not corporate accountants and lawyers. I do happen to have access to info about a lot of this stuff that is not necessarily public info though.

Based on historical precedence alone, I would say all 3 are highly likely to end up the courts to solve their problems. Even with a return to 75% load factors etc. Everyone is laser-focused on securing capital and surviving the next 6 months and there isn’t a vast amount of long-term strategic planning happening because there are too many unknowns at this time.

American will have liquidity issues, Delta will have debt maturity issues, and United is going to run into revenue and network issues. All 3 are at a very high risk of bankruptcy in 2021 given what we know now. My opinion is that none of the big 3 are going anywhere and the flying will still have to be done. Retirements are still happening and ultimately people will return to the skies.