Originally Posted by
chrisreedrules
Look I get it, the points guy and this article have contained questionable info and dubious authors in the past. Look into the financial data this guy is sharing though. That in itself is solid info.
At the end of the day the metrics of the recovery and what may or may not trigger a bankruptcy are very 3 Dimensional. And a lot of the posts on this forum contain a 2D view of things. We’re mostly pilots, not corporate accountants and lawyers. I do happen to have access to info about a lot of this stuff that is not necessarily public info though.
Based on historical precedence alone, I would say all 3 are highly likely to end up the courts to solve their problems. Even with a return to 75% load factors etc. Everyone is laser-focused on securing capital and surviving the next 6 months and there isn’t a vast amount of long-term strategic planning happening because there are too many unknowns at this time.
American will have liquidity issues, Delta will have debt maturity issues, and United is going to run into revenue and network issues. All 3 are at a very high risk of bankruptcy in 2021 given what we know now. My opinion is that none of the big 3 are going anywhere and the flying will still have to be done. Retirements are still happening and ultimately people will return to the skies.
Only in his home town and in his own house is a prophet without honour'
Chrisreedrules didn’t create the problem nor is he cheering it on. In MOST circumstances, fleet renewal to more cost effective aircraft would have been a good thing. In MOST circumstances, a diversified business plan incorporating domestic and international business and leisure flying would have been a good thing. American and the other members of the Big Three would have - as usual - been THE places to be employed.
But this is not MOST circumstances, it is a black swan event. And just by happenstance that situation very much favors SWA right now and to a lesser extent the ULCCs because of the likely quicker return of domestic flying and the advantages of a single type fleet. He’s not rejoicing in that situation, merely reporting and opining about it. And he is absolutely right that airline management in the past have used bankruptcy to deal with financial problems.
People need to not attack him for merely telling the truth.
