Originally Posted by
DashTrash
I think that they’re going to go right up to the January 23rd date with notices. Delta is sending out 2,558 this week. They have about 1500 pilots more than we do. If we send out notices to that date, it will be less overall but higher percentage than Delta. If we actually furlough 30%, we’ll lose market share.
FWIW, if UAL furloughs all the way up to the post-merger cutoff it represents a cut representing about 34% of the pre-covid "active pilots" and also does not make an allowance for retirements between now and next summer or any mitigations.
Of course, given the various limits for federal, state, and UPA advance notice requirements it unfortunately makes sense to notify more pilots than probably desired. It's easy for the company to cancel furloughs without penalty as they fine tune their staffing requirements.
But we are in uncharted territory and have no idea what demand will look like next year. Just because the official line is 30% does not mean it can't ultimately be cuts anywhere between 60% and 0%.