Does anyone have a valid argument for why management would agree to a lower ALV?
Management will be looking to achieve greater productivity, not less out of the remaining employees. A lower ALV doesn’t achieve that. A lower ALV is strictly a feather bedding strategy that preserves jobs, but unlikely to address employee productivity or cost.

A 20% reduction in ASM results in an approximate surplus of 1300 pilots for July 2021. I expect Vasu to announce a revised 25% ASM reduction for summer 2021 at the July 23rd state of the airline. That will put us at an 1800-1900 surplus for July 2021.

The July 2021 forecast (20% ASM reduction) currently shows a need of 10,997 active pilots. The fall 2020 forecast shows an approximate need of 10,000 active pilots. It’s a real possibility that the same fall reduction will still be in play for fall 2021. There’s around 850 planned retirements between July 2021 and December 2022. With a 25% ASM reduction and a normal fall drawdown in flying, I could easily see AA furloughing 1500 and be properly staffed until early 2023.