I don’t know how you can talk about furlough estimates without talking about the current COVID situation in the US:

1. The US is severely lagging it’s Western piers. Reopening and forgoing masks will do nothing to change demand. Until the public feels safe traveling there will be massive furloughs.

2. The POTUS sets the stage and steers the course. His behavior and messaging on Covid has been worse than terrible. Lots of people hate him and lots of people love him. Whatever your opinion of Trump, the fact remains that he has botched this response and has led to instability.

3. Our inability to take even basic measures to improve our infection rate has resulted in the US traveler being shut out of canada, Europe, and more.

The US needs a cohesive federal response.