This is a good post. This situation is different. There are no sporting events. There are no shows, conferences or expos. Business is generally down across the board. Once the virus threat is over it will take time for things to ramp back up again.
Originally Posted by
senecacaptain
Pilots tend to be binary thinkers. Switches are ON or OFF. You are cleared to land, or not cleared to land. You are IMC, or VMC. You are acting as PIC, or you are not acting as PIC.
With that said, many of us think a vaccine = air travel rapidly returns to pre-COVID levels. Vaccine = Normal again.
Not so sure about that. Until public confidence resumes, business travel returns, international is back, and major destinations, trade shows (business travel), and events are back, I am not sure what the future holds boys. If school resumes partially home school, or fully home school (school from home), guess what, corporate mom or dad ain't doing any business trips while Junior is home. Or unlikely. Summer mid-way point was July 10. Any "pent up demand" should have been blasted open in early summer. Not sure we saw that. School year summer is basically over in 6 weeks (August 24ish).
The big corporate/business travel push historically is Sept-November as year-end goals and targets are finished out and year end wrap-ups happen. I am concerned what those numbers will look like.
There are too many unknowns and TBDs right now.
I would be happy with 50% TSA numbers. We are hovering at 25% or less all summer. We didn't break 20% until June 14.