With so much riding on the outcome of the forthcoming vacancy award, I put together a [very] rough calculation, which assumes active (i.e., non-VSP/ExTO) pilot distribution within categories (by seat) will be the same — by percentage — as it is now. I’m aware of the possibility that DEN and PHX may grow and others like MCO may shrink, but, again, I did not factor those variables. Lastly, the current CA:FO ratio is 51.6% to 48.4%. After excluding all ExTOs and confirmed VSPs, the ratio becomes 53.4% to 46.6%. For my calculations, I assumed the company will allow the new ratio to stand. In any case, the unconfirmed VSPs will likely nudge the ratio a little closer to the current distribution.



The figures reflect what the categories might look like if all ExTO and confirmed VSP participants are removed from consideration. I understand Crew Planning will have to consider ExTO participants in the shuffle. However, I did not. Additionally, I did not separate EBG pilots in the OAK base. Finally, the “Outlook” column reflects predicted movement in or out of the category among pilots who remain after September 1st. I chose the word “displace” to demonstrate the fact that, by my predictions, some pilots currently assigned to a base would lose their slots. Of course, voluntary movements could reduce or prevent actual displacements.





Category Now Predicted Outlook

ATL CA: 281 229 No movement

BWI CA: 606 493 Gain 1

DAL CA: 616 506 Displace 21

DEN CA: 520 420 Gain 12

HOU CA: 556 453 Displace 1

LAS CA: 412 334 Gain 4

LAX CA: 149 121 Gain 1

MCO CA: 376 306 Displace 3

MDW CA: 669 543 Gain 2

OAK CA: 400 324 Gain 5

PHX CA: 461 375 No movement



ATL FO: 279 214 Displace 6

BWI FO: 598 451 Gain 6

DAL FO: 582 458 Displace 13

DEN FO: 497 374 Gain 12

HOU FO: 518 386 Gain 19

LAS FO: 350 266 No movement

LAX FO: 144 108 Gain 3

MCO FO: 358 276 Displace 16

MDW FO: 621 473 Displace 8

OAK FO: 370 274 Gain 14

PHX FO: 414 318 Displace 11



Again, these figures represent one possibility. I hope everyone who currently has a VSP bid in the system actually separates (with my congratulations and deepest wishes for health and happiness) and our network gurus find a way to avoid displacements. Most especially, I pray someone somewhere figures out a way to eliminate COVID 19. Good luck to us all!