Actually, M King Hubbert a Shell Oil Geologist in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970. It did. He forecast that worldwide production would peak somewhere between 1995 and 2010. It's acutally quite basic, all oil reserve discoveries and associated production rates follow a bell curve. The initial curve is the discovery curve, the subsequent curve is the production curve. The top of this curve is called Hubbert's Peak. Virtually every single oil producing nation in the world has peaked in terms of oil production. That's a fact.

In the 1950's the US was the world's largest exporter of oil. Just 20 years later, we became the world's largest importer, hence the dramatic impact of the OPEC oil embargo on our country. The US reached its peak production @ 10.2 million barrels of oil produced per day. 10 years later there were 4x as many wells on the ground, yet we were producing just 6.8 million barrels of oil per day. That's a sure sign that oil had peaked domestically.

Today the only countries that have not peaked are Saudia Arabia (12 million/barrels per day), Iraq (production capacity somewhat unknown), and Kuwait(about 2.5 million/barrels per day). The oil that fuels the world is the light, sweet crude oil in liquid form. The fact that we're looking at shales and tar sands is very troubling. It is an indication that the oil-based economy's days are numbered. Three years ago the Saudis were producing roughly 15 million/barrels per day...today there are 3x as many drills in Suadia Arabia, yet their production is less than it was 3 yrs. ago. That would also be a sign that their production has peaked and that world production has, therefore, also peaked.

YouTube M King Hubbert and Matt Simmons, and Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash. It's a lot closer than most people realize.