Originally Posted by
Excargodog
Nor am I the only one in the world that believes it likely we may never get a good vaccine. Something like a quarter of the colds we get are due to four human coronaviruses,
HKU1, 229E, NL63 and OC43 , and even after having one, the subsequent immunity seems of reasonably short duration:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....27.20082032v1
34 weeks after having a human coronavirus your chance of being reinfected by the same coronavirus is the same as someone who has never had it. That does not bode well for a ‘good’ vaccine, and it is entirely consistent with the veterinary experience with animal coronaviruses which is one of relatively poor and short-lived success.
So please forgive me, Goggles, but I don’t think that brainstorming other potential options is necessarily a bad idea.
I agree that there will likely never be an effective CV vaccine. I tell people that if we still can’t figure out a vaccine to the common cold, we shouldn’t be optimistic about a CV vaccine.
Coldly, I think natural selection will tamp down the lethality of the disease over the next generation or two (20-40 years). We will have to accept that those who are immunocompromised or live unhealthy lifestyles will be at a much higher risk to this disease than the more resilient, or watch the global economy collapse. Maybe this will ultimately end smoking and encourage healthy living. But science will rule, and natural selection will ultimately breed a healthier species.
Until then, it’s masks, Zoom, a depressed global economy, and maybe a world war (these are the economic conditions that historically preceded WW). Humanity has become excessively risk averse, and prioritizes safety above everything else, including livelihoods. I really think we’re looking at 10+ years of stunted growth as the global marketplace transforms, and instability to the global order as aggressors look to take advantage of the weakened global condition.