Originally Posted by
bradthepilot
I have a series of charts I publish for my pilot group; this is/was one of the questions that we've attempted to address. The table below shows 2019 data, compiled from .gov transportation data sources, of passenger counts for each month of 2019. Using April as a base month, I computed a coefficient by which to adjust the others months by. You can use this data in conjunction with the TSA data to help answer your question about what might happen when school starts etc.
You'll notice that there is a definite drop in September, but I don't know that there is any data that separates leisure vs. business travel during that period. Lots of people have opinions and guesses, and without any data to support those positions, that's all they are.
Unfortunately we can’t directly apply your ratio to our April numbers as our April was just depressed by lockdown. However the delta in the last few months using your numbers is encouraging at least. It may be propped up with business travelers, however.
I also find the international percent interesting when considering our recovery. Roughly half the flying is feed for international and international. Looking at being 25 percent I think we can say roughly 25 percent of flying is domestic business.