Originally Posted by
pangolin
Unfortunately we can’t directly apply your ratio to our April numbers as our April was just depressed by lockdown.
I disagree. Doesn’t matter however since the April 2020 data point divided by 1.0 remains unchanged.
The coefficient isn’t really month specific; it could use any month as the base month. What it really does is allows a glimpse of how current numbers might be affected by monthly trends seen in a normal year.
Said another way, adjusted for seasonality the “flatness” seen right now would actually be a decline if we normalized data across the year.