Originally Posted by
bradthepilot
Said another way, adjusted for seasonality the “flatness” seen right now would actually be a decline if we normalized data across the year.
That’s assuming a lot based upon a comparison of only one year (2019). Certainly Jan -Feb appear to be down months - down 12 and 17% from base month and the drop off from August to September appears real - but the fact that one year ago we witnessed a roughly 4% rise between Jun and July that we aren’t seeing now - it just seems a little soft calling it a decline when we don’t really know what the year to year variance is preCOVID. Could just be noise.
And of course this year’s ‘school start’ may be greatly different from most school starts...