The effects of COVID on the overall economy should not be discounted but business travel was really never NK’s forte anyway.

So it’s not really a question of whether or not airline flying as a whole takes a hit, because it unquestionably does, but how that hit affects each of the players. With business flying taking a more severe and long lasting hit, those airlines depending on it get put at a disadvantage at least temporarily. With overall numbers down, airlines depending on a gate monopoly to fend off competitors are at a disadvantage, even those who use regional affiliates to control those gates. So in the end it sort of comes down to CASM. While WN, F9, and NK will be affected like everyone else, I think they will not only lead the recovery but improve their market share and long term prospects vis a vis the legacies In the long run. That doesn’t mean they won’t be taking a hit in the short term though.