I am sitting at r-atp minimums. I can’t even get a flight instructor job at this point. Class dates are cancelled until further notice. I have learned a valuable lesson- I will definitely not be putting all my eggs in the aviation career basket because I now see how fast all these companies shut down and leave their employees with nothing
I agree that its definitely going to get worse before it gets better- but a decade is a bit a of a stretch to predict.
A few things are going to happen in the fall and winter
1. Possible vaccine ‐ I won't be getting it, but even Fauci thinks they will have something.
2. Election- no matter who wins any political motivations for the shutdown will be gone.
3. Normal people will stop caring about the virus that 99.5% of people survive and go back to living normally including business and leisure travel. The news will have some new big story to sensationalize for profit.
4. Zoom won't replace all international business travel and liesure travel will increase for millennials that have money- because they value experiences over possessions.
Also you only mentioned United. I guess everyone is still waiting for AA, DL, FedEx, and Southwest to say something.
Regional jets are still a desired mode of transportation- even if they don't have a legacy name plastered on the side. Look at how successful JSX was until the pandemic.
Airforce is going to still need pilots and last I checked they were still offering retention money. Also isn't there a huge shortage from the last recession where they weren't training pilots?
Its bad, but not bad for a decade bad. I expect the bottom to come this winter and to be in training at a regional before 2022 is over with my current qualifications and minimal flying to stay current while I continue to work my regular local government job