Originally Posted by rickair7777

You're pretty far off the mark...
1) It hasn't been 100 years.
2) The "Flu Vaccine" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines targeted at what they think will be the dominant strains each season. It changes twice each year.

I would add that the vaccine even for a non-dominant strain still has some effectiveness, but will also say that the flu vaccine is mainly administered not for immunity to all, but to slow severe outbreaks, essentially what we need with Covid.
1) It wasn't "botched together". Multiple vaccines (about 200) are in development using all of the different established and cutting-edge technologies. There should be multiple effective options to chose from, and some may be more suitable for some people than others. All normal pharma certification procedures are being followed so far.
2) Most of the people who don't get the flu shot aren't scared of it, they just didn't get around to it. Given the scare factor of covid, I would expect most folks will make the time. It will go to health care workers first (mandatory), then critical infrastructure folks like us (also mandatory), so by the time it even becomes available to the general public there will be some history.

I mean just because there are lots working on it, doesnt mean it is safe. I will say that I think this one will be done in the safest way possible given the urgency, but I dont know that I will be up first to test it out. In regards to the flu shot, I dont get it not because I dont get around to it, but rather because I just dont feel I need it.

No it's not at all like the flu in that regard... the flu exists in a perpetual mutation loop between pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in asia. That loop serves are a rapid incubator for new mutations, which them get on planes and spread across the globe.

Covid has not exhibited that behavior, nor is it likely to. Once vaccination is established, covid cases will fade to isolated pockets... likely too few cases to provide good opportunity for continuous mutations. Besides there will be multiple vaccines, mutating around one will not necessarily render others ineffective.

Pretty sure Covid is now on like 12 strains or something like that. I would have to look it up to be sure but I am fairly certain it is mutating. There is no way to definitively state right now that it won't turn into a seasonal issue.

Zoom is not what you think it is. I did sales and management in corporate America... most business travel cannot be replaced by zoom. Some, yes but that was already happening before covid.

Originally Posted by Flyhayes

A few things are different in the airline industry today vs during the lost decade.
Today, (pre-covid) most analysts feel that we have reached optimum consolidation within the major/legacy sector. Those unions are well established and not likely to slide too far backwards re: concessions. We are also not likely to see many new entrants be successful in driving the wages way down.
The same goes for the regionals. This was (pre-covid) probably the area within the industry that still had some room for consolidation, but by in large had whittled itself down from the plethora of true mom and pop regionals operating turboprop service. Most of these regionals have union representation and the contracts will put them in a better place than during the lost decade. It will also be prohibitively expensive for small startups to try to usurp the industry and union contract protections.
Also of note, is that many, if not most, of those who were stuck in the lost decade the first time around are now at their "forever" airlines. I would hazard a guess that even with the risk of furlough, based on the sacrifices to get to where they are today, they would rather take furloughs over deep concessions that would be near impossible to claw back. We're also seeing many pilot opting to take early retirement. Those guys aren't coming back in 5 years when the industry is expected to be back And then it's likely that we'll be right back where we were, when all the regionals were clawing to get meat in the right seat. During those 5 years, you'll also see some attrition, people will find other employment and not want to start over. That 14 year regional lifer that just lost his job, probably won't be in a position to start over as an F.O anytime soon, so he'll need to beck filled somehow. And a bunch of new CFI's might not be able to stick it out 5 years. Which will contribute to a new pilot vacuum, though probably not as deep as during the lost decade. For those in the industry right now. I think it's all about waiting it out.

But then again, I read all that in a fortune cookie

Originally Posted by Flyhayes

To add to this, even when they mutate, vaccines while not !00% effective can still be effective. Take the last H1N1 strain, the vaccines had about 30% effectiveness, but those that did get sick, generally were less so, and recovered much quicker.

Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat

I have seen for months people saying that airlines are done for and business travel is done blah blah.

Anyway I've taken a 5 month preemptive sabatical away from flying doing project managent stuff. Been doing it a few weeks already and I can tell you first hand that this zoom, skype, messenger, voip, phone call boogey man isn't real.

Its a mess..'oh can you hear me?...ahhh your breaking up...oh sorry I think I spoke over you....no, what document are you looking at?' It is messy to the point that meetings are cancelled and there are more one on ones and chinese whispers having to take place elaewhere. In a collaborative workplace it doesn't work.

After seeing it.....im not worried.