Originally Posted by aerospacepilot

No doubt that the cooling US economy may release demand for oil...

But I still don't see a big price drop. If oil is at $90/barrel today, I can't see it going any lower than $80/barrel before Memorial Day. Then what is going to happen come summertime. My prediction is the price will be sustained over $100/barrel. And guess what, the price is only going to get higher and higher (long term).


I have decided that my vote in the 2008 presidential election is going to be based entirely on who has the best stand on getting the US off of our addiction to oil. And I am not just talking foreign oil. I am talking about oil...PERIOD!!!
Getting the US off oil helps so many of our problems (the economy, the environment, defense, and energy cost). I feel fixing this one problem could lead to a prosperous nation by helping all of these major issues.

Drilling in ANWR, off the shore of Florida, off the shore of California, and other places is a SHORT TERM solution to a long term problem. It is like putting a band aid on a gushing open wound. Yes it will increase supply, but ultimately it will eventually run out, and in a few years we will be right back where we started with an energy crisis, except we will have destroyed some of the most sacred environment on earth in the process.

The solution to the energy crisis is not to drill for more oil. The solution is to switch to a form of energy that is not a natural resource. A form of energy that will not run out. What are some examples? Renewable energy such as wind power, hydro power, solar power. Also add some nuclear power in the mix (not too much!). Develop an all electric car that can go 80mph, and has a 200 mile range, and you can plug it in to charge at night. We don't quite have the technology to power our entire nation on renewable energy, and we don't quite have the battery technology for an all electric car with the same utility as a gas engine. But we are almost there. WE JUST HAVE TO INVEST IN THE TECHNOLOGY!!


$100/barrel oil is not enough to cause the free market to switch to renewable energy. Gas at $3 a gallon is not enough to cause the free market to switch to renewable energy. It will take gas in the $6/7/8/9 a gallon range to cause a noticeable reduction in driving and a noticeable increase in purchase of hybrid/plug in hybrid/all electric cars. So I hope we either invest in this technology to get our nation off of our addiction to oil. If that does not work, then I have to hope that the free market causes this to happen (and that includes $200-$250/barrel oil).


Long story short...The price of oil is only going to go up until we switch to renewable energy and non-gas (or atleast capable plug in-hybrid) cars. Increasing supply is only a short term solution to a long term problem (and only an idiot would drill in ANWR or off the california coast). The price of oil is only going up.