Originally Posted by
Sniper
I like Mesa to contract some to a more manageable size, but don't see a buy-out or liquidation in the next couple years. Long term prospects are cloudy, but that's the case for most regionals - the massive growth is over. There's just not much of a demand for 50 seat jets and smaller turbo-props in the US market, and mainline carrier's pilot groups have figured out that capturing the smaller gauge flying through scope is a required item in negotiations, so the instance of contract flying of smaller gauge 'replacing' mainline's larger gauge are dwindling.
My crystal ball is on the fritz today though, so I'm just speculating as much as the next guy.
Now there's some common sense. I agree, Mesa isn't going away, no matter how much people may wish it would.
Cash. Mesa doesn't have a cash problem, they managed to raise the $80M+ bond pretty quickly and, even if the get a cash problem they OWN 58 of the aircraft of which at least there is some equity. They can convert those aircraft to lease agreements and release that equity as cash pretty much anytime they want. Mesa does not have a long term cash problem and it doesn't have a short term cash problem.
Delta - by all accounts doesn't havea problem with Mesa. They gave them new aircraft, and Mesa keeps hiring Delta insiders to run the Freedom operation and people do business with people they know. I'm sure Mesa expects to do a lot more business with Delta, we'll see if they do, but they are unlikely to do much less.
US Air - the end of the contract has been written on the wall since AWAC bought the business. As others pointed out, it's got a number of years to run yet, and while it runs out the planes come out of the contract on a staggered schedule, which presumably allows Mesa to send most of them to China.
UAL - have you ever been a passenger with United? They could give a damn about passenger comfort or service - two things which Mesa has no concept of. United does however care about cost, one thing that Mesa doesn't have much of. UAL is taking 70 seaters from Mesa on 10 year deals, they're not about to shut the operation down.
Like it or not Mesa will be around for a while, possibly a little smaller, in fact likely a little smaller, but they'll be there.
You heard this prediction here first - go! aircraft flying the West Coast inside of 5 years.