While we ruminate about something (HAL taking our place) that is years, probably decades away at least, I think we're missing the big picture.

The title of this thread is "Pilot Shortage." Demand for our services was extremely high and accelerating seven months ago. That drove the pay improvements all carriers saw through the '10s. This black swan event is unprecedented, but like all black swan events, it will eventually pass. When it does and there is again accelerating demand for our services, where are the pilots going to come from? The military has been producing far less pilots than it used to and at least the Air Force still has a serious rated manning shortage. Civilian production has been decimated by the lost decade and the attendant aversion to the high cost and low return on investment prospective pilots faced, hence programs like Aviate to try to prime the pump. After this event, it may again be a hard sell to a college age American to consider a career in aviation. But the fact remains, we are difficult to produce widgets--there's a long lead time and considerable expense to do so. You can't just magically produce an ATP qualified individual overnight.

Management at every airline recognizes this and are taking steps to try to lock in long term company gains at pilots' expense while we're at the nadir of this event. It's not coincidence that Kirby is trying to get voluntary MPG cuts while Bastian is trying to do the same thing. Nor was Kelly's veiled threat of pulling the offered contract at the beginning of the pandemic unrelated to the reality that this is a short term but very intense correction to the long term need for pilots.

With that in mind, consider the following:

1) Pilots have far more leverage than they currently think due to the realities outlined above.
2) Management is using fear during this very intense correction to try to drive long term company gains that wouldn't be economically available in the pre-COVID environment.
3) Airline stocks, after an initial steep decline, have bounced nicely and are currently fairly stable. This indicates Wall Street's belief that there is light at the end of the tunnel and that bankruptcy is not the foregone conclusion some would have us believe.
4) Programs already in place (furlough-plus, half-month COLAs, restricted early out program) along with the company's own messaging (not flight ops or union messaging, that's all doom & gloom for our benefit) points to an awareness of a return to an environment where pilots will be needed, perhaps in very short order.
5) Watch very closely any legislation that would relax rules regarding foreign pilots flying for US carriers. That's where I see the next threat.

Truth in advertising, I'm one of the 3900+ hostages. I'm not willing to slit my own throat.