Originally Posted by Viperstick

While we ruminate about something (HAL taking our place) that is years, probably decades away at least, I think we're missing the big picture.

The title of this thread is "Pilot Shortage." Demand for our services was extremely high and accelerating seven months ago. That drove the pay improvements all carriers saw through the '10s. This black swan event is unprecedented, but like all black swan events, it will eventually pass. When it does and there is again accelerating demand for our services, where are the pilots going to come from? The military has been producing far less pilots than it used to and at least the Air Force still has a serious rated manning shortage. Civilian production has been decimated by the lost decade and the attendant aversion to the high cost and low return on investment prospective pilots faced, hence programs like Aviate to try to prime the pump. After this event, it may again be a hard sell to a college age American to consider a career in aviation. But the fact remains, we are difficult to produce widgets--there's a long lead time and considerable expense to do so. You can't just magically produce an ATP qualified individual overnight.