Originally Posted by
Hedley
We need to accept that there isn’t going to be very much mitigating going on. We only had 500 or so take the early out. The company is probably being realistic with an outlook for 50% revenue being best case in the absence of a vaccine. Testing, distributing, and allowing time for results to be seen probably isn’t going to save the summer of 2021, considering the nonstop media coverage of the virus and the fear that is maintained. United is also more dependent on international travel than other airlines, and the uniform consensus is that market will be the last to recover. We are going to most likely furlough as fast as we can starting October 1 to get close to the 3,900 fewer bodies that they want off of the payroll. That would still leave us very fat on pilots until demand starts to recover. A much smaller United will also mean a much smaller regional fleet. Hopefully on the rebound the 50 seat jets seem less attractive to management and we can then take flying back since scope is maxed out. Not trying to be doom and gloom, but there just isn’t a demand or need for what we do. The airlines are going to get much smaller, and then recover on the other side.
I generally agree with you on this being a highly probable outlook; however, I think that we could still be surprised as to how quickly things might recover after CV. Airline fundamentals were never better than 2019, as opposed to other eras. The other unique aspect of this situation is that people have “mothballed” themselves and are waiting for a resolution. If and when that resolution starts to happen (vaccines), I wouldn’t be surprised if, in spite of the economic predictions, people came out of their hibernation in droves. These really are uncharted waters.