Originally Posted by
AxlF16
Fortunately for us t's more complicated than this. Unlike most other areas of AI and automation, failure here will be spectacular...and deadly. As another poster alluded, you also need major advances in datalink waveforms or bandwidth. Even the USAF can't provide all required bandwidth organically - and they own and operate leading edge space based comm. Then - even if you solve the 'throughput' problem you still have to make it secure. Not just secure like your facebook password, but REAL security. Another poster did a fine job explaining the basics of what that means. When you even get to this point, you need redundancy for normal material and infrastructure failures. Now tell me WHO is going to pay for this? The cost to build and operate the required infrastructure will be staggering. I know that we make good money, but I don't think you'll find any cost savings for a very long time.
The lessons learned from US military UAS/RPA are instructive. The control systems and communication/control links are arguably more important the the technology in the aircraft. In my experience the systems lacked adequate operational redundancy and flexibility for commercial operations.
Based on my 121 and military experience I think that introducing these systems into the airspace will only slow things down and reduce capacity. Ask yourself how many times you've saved a go around by having the preceding aircraft in sight. How many more aircraft can arrive under 'visual' conditions - and how much do airports rely on that capacity?
I'll believe it's coming when I see more efficiency & no mistakes from ATC, when I see no ACARS, WiFi, & CCS failures, and when I see no Jepp Database or aircraft systems malfunctions.
In other words - I don't expect to see this in my career, or even my lifetime. FWIW I'm 53 years old.
Axl, you're exactly right. I was an Air Force UAS pilot during my furloughs and my take is that the military will soon conquer the dreaded "see and avoid" problem that has plagued the UAS industry with a "sense and avoid" technology. At that point UAS will be safer than manned aircraft as far as ability to avoid mid air collisions. The FAA will then allow UAS routine access to the NAS and the civilian market will explode. Bandwidth is the most critical issue that will prevent the airline industry from going pilotless. There is not enough of it for the public and government to rationalize and accept giving all of it to the airline industry (yes,maintaining a link to every airliner out there would take every bit of it). Military, CBP, local law enforcement, Dept of Forestry, Amazon, CNN, Verizon, etc. will all claim a need for bandwidth and will have priority. What's left will certainly not be used by the passenger industry. It will take a monumental leap in technology to increase available bandwidth before our jobs are threatened. That being said, overseas cargo industry may well be going pilotless within our career time frame, and the First Officer may go the way of the Second Officer. For what it's worth, every single Global Hawk landing I ever saw was as good as my best landing and it never had a bad landing. I, on the other hand...