This is how I see it as well. It will fluctuate but starting in September there will be roughly 2400 pilots fewer on property, at least for six months. This is quite significant. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few months with lines, bidding, vacancies, etc.

There will be some natural attrition as well. I flew with a senior captain who has about 5 or 6 months to go and he's going to fly the remainder of his time. But he'll be gone too before long.