Originally Posted by
xjsaab
My prediction. Oil will drop to less than $50 a barrel in less than five years. Airlines will make record proffits. If you watch the trend after the oil crisis of the 70's this is exactly what happened in the 80's into the 90's. The combination of Alternative fuels, new oil sources outside of OPEC's grasp being utilized, fuel efficient alternatives, lifestyle changes will not have a instant change in the economy. The displacement will be slow but's it's inertia will last for at least 15 years.
This is not really valid...in 1973 oil prices were ARTIFICIALLY inflated because OPEC instituted an embargo to punish the US for supporting Isreal during the Yom Kippur war.
Today OPEC is EXTREMELY wary of raising oil prices any more than absolutely necessary...to do so would only hasten the development of alternative sources. They know they will be riding camels and herding goats for a living again at some point in the future, but they'd like to postone the inevitable for as long as they can.
Hopefully someday fuel prices will drop as alternatives become available...but this cannot happen until AFTER we pay the high price of infrastructure development.