I think pre-covid rules are out. If AA goes into BK, I’d expect further shrinkage. It won’t be the same 15,900 pilot (plus a ton of regional pilots) strong airline it was. When you factor in early outs, retirements, and furloughs/zero time lines, legacies will all be about 30% smaller than they were by the end of the year. Combined, it’s the equivalent of an entire legacy being gone. And that may not even be all. There’s more natural shrinkage with retirements, and at least one airline has said more furloughs will be likely in 2021 if things don’t turn around. A merger with AS/B6/NK/F9 at this point, or say in 2021, would basically just make them the size they were in January. Add to that the complete shedshow that is the airline industry right now, if there was a clear path forward to eliminate some surplus and consolidate to a more sustainable business/industry, I don’t think the government would stop it, as that would lessen the government’s potential burden to bail out, pay unemployment, etc. And if the government is a shareholder of one of these airlines from the bailout agreements, and allowing a merge would be better for their chances of getting paid back, it’s even more incentive for them to approve it (though I’m not sure the DOJ/DOT could legally use that in their ruling, but I’m sure it’d be discussed).

Pre-covid, I didn’t think any legacy could merge, with the exception of maybe UAL because they were smaller, especially on the domestic side. But I think at this point, based on history with big disruptive events like this, consolidation will happen in some form. Not right now, as everyone is still in survival mode, but after the landscape is more clear with respect to post-pandemic travel, broader economic damage in the US, BK filings/outlooks/outcomes, etc. At this point, it would be nice if we were not involved in any consolidation, though.