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Old 08-30-2020, 07:09 PM
  #15  
tallpilot
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Joined APC: Dec 2011
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 847
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
I actually believe that to be true WHEN THE PAX COME BACK. Just don’t know how long that will be. Clearly this mess is going to discourage entry into the career field and has caused and will cause the premature retirements of hundreds of senior pilots and will sort of trap in the regionals a few senior regional pilots that Now just won’t have enough time to age 65 left to make starting In a new seniority system at the next level worth it. But what will really get hammered is new guys starting in 141 zero to hero programs. With regional bonuses pretty much gone and regionals not even paying for the ATP anymore - not to mention the very real possibility of more regionals coming under pressure next year from scope limitations due to major blockhour flying being so low in 2020, A whole lot if people who would have entered the career field either won’t or at least will delay their entry for a few years. That pretty much gives everyone with ANY 121 experience a huge head start in the rebound. Of course, for that to happen there has actually gotta BE a rebound.
That remains, 6 months into this mess, the quintessential question: how deep and how long. The first seems pretty clear as we’re completely stuck ~25%. Will an exogenous event (vaccine, etc) shock demand back up to a reasonable percentage of 2019 or is it going to be a half decade slog? While we wait will furloughs and lack of movement be the only consequences or will contracts be shredded once again? If they are not I’m pretty sure it will be the first and only time at least since 1978.
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