Originally Posted by
Excargodog
The worst pandemic in US history was the Spanish flu pandemic 100 years ago. It resolved in two years, without vaccinations, antivirals, convalescent plasma, or glucocorticoids. Accepting potentially long term setbacks or adverse contractual precedents for what is potentially a short term problem may not be the most advantageous course of action.
Even if Covid goes away after two years that doesn't mean that our customers are coming back. Most analysts think that the number of airline passengers, in particular business travelers, will remain depressed for several years. Our airline has a choice:
Option 1. We can reduce overall size through mass furloughs and aircraft retirements. I'm fairly certian that once 3,000 plus pilots leave the property the company will begin quickly retire the majority of the 320's and 777's. Once demand returns, we will then have to decide if it's safe to grow the airline and bring back furloughs. If business travel is still depressed and yields are low it won't be worth it to grow. In the meantime, we will watch start-ups enter our hubs and our market share just like Jetble and Virgin America in the previous downturns.
Option 2. We can keep our pilots in their seats and keep our planes in storage. When there is a demand surge, we can pounce on it and grab market share. We can even go after the low-yield flying and the cost to carry it is negligible given that the company is paying pilots not to work.
Of the two options, only one presents a future airline with opportunities for pilots.