My prediction is 190CA seats (and to a lesser degree 190FO seats) will get obliterated on this next bid. With renewed emphasis on “1 for 1 with the A220,” that’s 8/60 of our 190 fleet being retired by end of year 2021. Those numbers alone call for ~130 associated 190 pilots to be transitioned by end of year, but I suspect they may go a little higher than that with 190 block hours being reduced overall. Despite the theory that 190s will be flying more as seat caps are lifted, we simply don’t need 905 E190 pilots, or even the same ratio with 8 fewer E190s.

If I were king, this is how I would change the numbers for end of year 2021, which is based on my prediction that the A220 will just be based in BOS next year, and the LR SQ base will be split between JFK and BOS:

JFK320CA: -30
JFK320FO: 0
JFK320SQCA: +30
JFK320SQFO: +60
JFK190CA: -60
JFK190FO: -40

BOS320CA: -30
BOS320FO: 0
BOS320SQCA: +30
BOS320SQFO: +60
BOS190CA: -100
BOS190FO: -70
BOS220CA: +60
BOS220FO: +70

LAX320CA: +10
LAX320FO: +10

Total CA: -90
Total FO: 90
Total: 0

There are 10 more retirements this year and 30 next…so if they wanted, they could shrink the numbers even more I suppose. Then if things look good put out another supplemental and create more vacancies.

That’s my “if I were king” plan/prediction. We will find out soon enough how accurate it is.

Think the last net 0 vacancy LGB->LAX bid was bad? Just wait for this one. I think in retrospect, the company should have done this bid and the LAX swap at the same time, because a lot of the training events triggered by the last one will be undone or otherwise changed on this one.