Bottoms up,

I very much agree with your pessimism about the vaccine and/or therapeutic route. Your premise about economic recovery would be sound, if the aforementioned two things were the only route out of economic purgatory. I personally don’t think that is the case. This virus, although certainly more deadly than the common flu, has killed less than 1% of 1% of our population.

I suspect there will come a point of economic pragmatism, where people go forward understanding that COVID-19 may be a part of their lives for years to come. Much like automobile top speed increasing and thus the death toll rising exponentially, corporations may be forced to face economic devastation (or reshaping, to be very optimistic) or return to business “as usual.“ whatever that means in 2021

if you had told the average American that the flu is going to be “twice as deadly this year,” I don’t think many would have really been that concerned (people like your wife notwithstanding). I don’t want to invoke the M-word here but the hysteria around this virus has certainly outpaced the actual threat. I believe with a little time, that will be seen by more and more people. Obviously 200,000 deaths is tragic, but if looked at in a historical perspective, this is a fairly small scale event that is having an outsized economic impact