Originally Posted by
TOGALOCK
Just food for thought... We're obviously a long way away from being normal, but we don't really need to use 2019 numbers as the ultimate target of recovery. 2019 was a record year in commercial aviation in terms of both passenger numbers and airline profits. From a pilot standpoint hiring was off the charts. We don't need our respective companies blowing their roofs off with the cash influx and pilot recruiters handing out flyers at local grass strips like a scene from Independence Day, recruiting everyone from a private pilot to Cousin Eddie's drunk, crop dusting identical twin brother. We just need to get to the point that passenger loads are good, airlines are reporting a modest profit and hiring starts to trickle again. That's when I will personally begin to breath a sigh of relief. It would be interesting to compare our current TSA throughput to, say, 2014 or 2015 numbers. If these "experts" are correct and it is 2024 before we see a full 2019 like recovery, as pilots we will likely see and feel a sense of normalcy well before that.
Yes taking into account natural and early retirements, a return to 2015 levels could see everyone else employed in their pre-covid seat. Well not quite...
International isn't going to come back as quickly, so maybe 2015 numbers but with the inevitably higher domestic/interntional ratio would see everyone employed, but maybe with some folks flying guppies instead of WB's.