Originally Posted by
rickair7777
With all that said... for most people, in the long run/grand scheme, it's better to be furloughed from a major than employed by a regional. Obvious exceptions for those over 50, GED and no other skills, stay-at-home spouse w/kids, etc.
It's hard enough as it is to move up, without trying to guesstimate if the economy/industry will hold up for 3-4 years after your class date.
I frankly wouldn't trade my somewhat junior number for the job security of my old regional gig.
I clearly did not communicate what I intended to communicate. I never intended to communicate that one should turn down an offer from a major - any major - to continue on at a regional. There MAY be cases where that would be appropriate, a few very senior pilots with not that many years before they turn 65 or some social or economic reason compelling them to stay at their regional domicile, but economically such a course of action would make no sense for the vast majority. And while COVID is hammering a lot of people’s career prospects currently, this too will pass. Even the Spanish Flu burnt itself out in two years. And the COVID caused disruption has discouraged a lot of people From going in to the career field so I truly expect the pilot shortage to be back even if the economic effects of the COVID lockdowns delay it five years.
What I WAS advocating was that regional pilots educate themselves about what is going on at different majors because, yes, there IS a narrow window of flexibility for the first couple years at a major when junior people DO change employers (I know several former VX acquaintances who bailed from Alaska after they were acquired and other junior FOs who bailed to freight or to/from SWA. It really does happen. And I believe many if not most of the younger regional people ARE going to get an offer to a major once we are fully recovered, be that in two years or ten and - yeah, they are going to take it, because fir the vast majority any major will be better than any regional.
But at that time they will have all the things on their resume that let them get that job to begin with and then immediately add a new type-rating and major experience. And when that happens they will have the narrow window of opportunity - a few years at most - before seniority locks them in to the airline they are at for a career, or at least for as long as that airline exists.
But the world is changing and some business models are adapting better than others.
Don’t get emotionally locked in to yesterday’s winner when the paradigm shifts. Watch what is happening today.