I read it . . . twice.

It's the same nonsense being spouted by AW and KK on the other forum.

You are making assumptions about the future that are simply not knowable. No one knows when a vaccine will be available to the masses, and no one knows how the public will respond in regards to travel so no one knows what Scheduled Block Hours will be next summer. What we do know is that if levels are above 70% of 2019 then the TA is done and MPG is back to normal.

What we can surmise about the opposite scenario is that if travelers do not return then UAL like the entire industry will need to massively resize and furloughs that go beyond August 2016 hires are highly likely and again the TA will be dead. A scenario wherein travel remains below 70% of 2019 and UAL furloughs only 2007 pilots and continues to keep a surplus of thousands of pilots on hand is almost impossible to imagine except in the minds of the fear mongering CONs desperately trying to incite an emotional No vote among pilots.

Is what you say a possibility? I suppose anything is possible, but then so is my winning the lottery next week. It's possible, but it's really unlikely.

For the record I can think of several good reasons to vote no that do not include unlikely assumptions about the future:

1) Industry leaders expected travel to rebound by October and they were wrong so expectations about 2021 may just as well be misplaced and so taking a pay cut to forestall the highly probable furlough is a bad gamble.

2) Keeping surplus pilots on the payroll until next June is a $1-2 billion dollar expense at the most. If Kirby really believes what he is saying the company could pay for this on it's own.

3) This is socialism at it's finest, and my guess is most pilots, whether senior or junior, do not support the philosophical idea of "spreading the peanut butter more evenly" so why vote for a socialist TA that might lead to more socialist ideas in future contracts.

4) ALPA is making an attempt to control the economic reality of the industry. Have they ever been successful at changing industry economics in the past.