Quote:
I realize I didn't include a range of days in my post 3 weeks ago regarding October 9th being the day we achieve 750K passengers on a 7-day rolling average basis. I have included that information for the below forecasts. The predicted date is the "center" of the forecast.
If we reach the numbers earlier than expected, we are trending better than expected relative to forecast and vice-versa.
Forecasts further in the future have wider ranges to accommodate greater uncertainty.
For example, predicting the day we achieve 1 Million for the 7-day rolling average for passengers would have a smaller band than predicting when we would achieve 2 Million for the 7-day rolling average for passengers.
The below forecasts assume approximately a 4% growth for the Year-Over-Year numbers (~36% for the entire month of October versus ~32% for the entire month of September). This is simplifying the forecast but it works as an approximation.
Like I said a few weeks ago, the forecast is based on data + analysis. Not feelings of what people think will happen or anecdotal comments. That is not to say that we can't revert to negative growth with the no stimulus + layoffs, or change in public sentiment. It just hasn't manifested itself yet.
750K
Our 7-day rolling average of passengers is now 745,008.
We will achieve 750K on a 7-day rolling basis on October 3rd (+/- 1 day). This would correspond to data that would be released October 4th. This convention applies for all below forecasts as well.
See Chart Below
7-Day Rolling Average of Passengers
The (post-lockdown) 7-day rolling average high for passengers was on September 9th with 779,564. This incorporated the entire Labor Day weekend (data from Sept. 3 - 9).
We will surpass this number on a 7-day rolling basis on October 9th (+/- 3 days). This means that starting in early October, on an ongoing weekly basis, more passengers will be travelling than any other time since the lockdowns began (including Labor Day Weekend).
Today is identified in red.
Mythical10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
As of today, our 7-day rolling average percentage is 32.9%.
We will achieve 35% on a 7-day rolling basis on October 14th (+/- 4 days).
Post-Lockdown % High
The (post-lockdown) 7-day rolling average % high was on September 8th with 37.2%. This incorporated the entire Labor Day weekend (data from Sept. 2 - 8).
We will surpass this number on a 7-day average % on October 27th (+/- 7 days).
Cheers,
AirlineAnalyst
Thanks. Stick around. I like your analysis.Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst
Part 1/XI realize I didn't include a range of days in my post 3 weeks ago regarding October 9th being the day we achieve 750K passengers on a 7-day rolling average basis. I have included that information for the below forecasts. The predicted date is the "center" of the forecast.
If we reach the numbers earlier than expected, we are trending better than expected relative to forecast and vice-versa.
Forecasts further in the future have wider ranges to accommodate greater uncertainty.
For example, predicting the day we achieve 1 Million for the 7-day rolling average for passengers would have a smaller band than predicting when we would achieve 2 Million for the 7-day rolling average for passengers.
The below forecasts assume approximately a 4% growth for the Year-Over-Year numbers (~36% for the entire month of October versus ~32% for the entire month of September). This is simplifying the forecast but it works as an approximation.
Like I said a few weeks ago, the forecast is based on data + analysis. Not feelings of what people think will happen or anecdotal comments. That is not to say that we can't revert to negative growth with the no stimulus + layoffs, or change in public sentiment. It just hasn't manifested itself yet.
750K
Our 7-day rolling average of passengers is now 745,008.
We will achieve 750K on a 7-day rolling basis on October 3rd (+/- 1 day). This would correspond to data that would be released October 4th. This convention applies for all below forecasts as well.
See Chart Below
7-Day Rolling Average of Passengers
The (post-lockdown) 7-day rolling average high for passengers was on September 9th with 779,564. This incorporated the entire Labor Day weekend (data from Sept. 3 - 9).
We will surpass this number on a 7-day rolling basis on October 9th (+/- 3 days). This means that starting in early October, on an ongoing weekly basis, more passengers will be travelling than any other time since the lockdowns began (including Labor Day Weekend).
Today is identified in red.
Mythical
As of today, our 7-day rolling average percentage is 32.9%.
We will achieve 35% on a 7-day rolling basis on October 14th (+/- 4 days).
Post-Lockdown % High
The (post-lockdown) 7-day rolling average % high was on September 8th with 37.2%. This incorporated the entire Labor Day weekend (data from Sept. 2 - 8).
We will surpass this number on a 7-day average % on October 27th (+/- 7 days).
Cheers,
AirlineAnalyst