Originally Posted by
Scoop
I keep hearing this - The company knows how many Pilots we will need for summer 2021. Really? The company knows how this will all play out? How exactly do they know this? What governments will retain a travel ban? What states will retain lock-down protocols? When will Disney Land Open? Does the company know these things? I don't believe that for 1 second. I don't believe anyone has anything other than a barely educated guess how this plays out. They can possibly survey for corporate/traveler intentions but with all of the variables how accurate will that be?
You give management or anyone who thinks they can predict this way too much credit. We and every other airline is blundering our way through one day at a time as best as possible. All they really know for sure is that if Cares 2 get approved we will be carrying a huge surplus of Pilots for some time. Best case, due to a confluence of events demand picks up before Cares 2 expires.
Scoop
*LIKE*
To borrow from the hurricane models, the cone of certainty is very wide for summer demand and staffing guesses.
Because of this wide range, there is tremendous risk in any staffing solution they set today in October. Which is exactly the reason they won’t commit to specific headcount ties to the LOA.
To carry the analogy, we can ask for volunteers now to leave the beach (in exchange for less pay and commitment), or we can let the company make those cuts involuntarily at a later date. Maybe that number is 1000, maybe it’s 1941, maybe it’s 2500+ if Covid gets worse. Maybe it’s 1000 now and another 1000 3 months from now. The company will adjust their plan as time moves on. This isn’t a static staffing commitment they are bound to today.