Originally Posted by
FetaCheese
Without unnecessary doom and gloom just for doom's sake, realistically I see recalls starting around fall of 2021. At a rate of 100 per month, give or take..that's roughly 16 months for all furloughs to be recalled from the moment recalls begin. So about a year on furlough for guys at the top of the 1600. About 2.5 years for guys at the bottom.
Assuming we don't get any kind of stimulus, which is looking very likely at any time.
I'm all for healthy skepticism, but the rate of 100/mo is only applicable if you're sending all recalls through a long course again. The questions was asked and answered a few months ago. If you're only out for 1 year, the training footprint is only an additional day or two beyond the normal recurrent footprint. I don't recall how it changes after that, but the point is that it's not bandwidth limited to 100/mo if they recall in 2021.