Originally Posted by
MinRest
Owners don't equal expansion, aircraft orders do. Unless there is a waitlist to buy shares because aircraft can't come on property fast enough, owners leaving and owners coming doesn't move the needle in terms of pilot hiring. If they have reduced larger schedules for pilots to bid and from talking to friends on the line who are flying very unproductive trips, I would say you are off on the 75-80% guestimation.
I know there was a flights per day metric you could look at, but isn't there also a live leg percentage you can see as well?
When a 25 hour card holder buys in, they buy at least 50 hours worth of ownership. If there is just the historical level of card to owner graduation, first the flight times will be back to normal and then go higher than before. That is the big if that management is waiting on. They are super cautious. That said, the forecast over the next week is for over 330 customer legs per day. That is getting closer to last year than I expected. I don't keep track of the numbers from before, other than remembering that they keep going up. There are many who aren't doing a lot of flying now (especially in the large cabin with a big lack of international flying now), but there are still many flying quite a bit. I believe scheduling has made an effort to chop down the flight pay so they are spreading the flying more evenly than before and slowing crews down when they are getting around the magic 12.1 hours per tour. I really don't see hiring unless there is a lot of card to share graduation.
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