I think chances are the furlough threat is just a test of how stupid we are. Are we stupid enough to take this deal? Are we weak enough to fold? Can he wring a pay cut out of us by simply saying, “Boo!”? This IS classic FordHarrison.

If we vote it down, I’m thinking 95% chance, even if PSP2 doesn’t come through, that Gary announces in a few weeks that business is picking up more than they expected and they don’t need to furlough. But, I’d also say 99% chance PSP2 comes through.

Gary does not want to furlough. He has so much leverage over us collectively with the power of the idea of “We’re the only airline that has never furloughed”. He knows that if he ever pulls that trigger, that leverage is gone forever. Is he gonna do it over a 10% pay cut? He has saved the company billions during the course of his tenure by leveraging the no-furloughs-ever thing over us.

Welcome to SWA: the land of smoke and mirrors and cost units. Lots of people come to SWA for similar reasons or for the “NUTS!” culture or whatever and figure out at some point that it was all a big illusion. When illusions are shattered, it can be disappointing. I remember feeling kind of empty as a kid when I figured out Santa Claus wasn’t real. This place is just another corporation. If it was ever something else, that ended a couple of decades ago.

Maybe this is part of the reason why the other airlines insist on better pay rates: so that they’re better able to build a rainy day fund for themselves and their families to weather the inevitable downturns in this industry.