Originally Posted by
JediCheese
I agree up to a point.
The only variable that I don't know about is when the slot program at several major airports resumes. With reduced traffic, it's cheaper to run a 50 seat flight on a route that you have no interest in flying than a 70 seater. Especially if you're using the 70 seaters on profitable routes.
I don’t know what the route structure will look like and how much it will change. We may stop flying 6 flights a day from a hub to LHR in a 767 and run 4 in a 777. We could stop running 6 flights a day on a 175 and run 4 in a 319 or 737-700. We may stop serving very small towns like CLL or HYS. We could end up back to where we were, or with reduced frequency on bigger planes and give up unneeded slots. There will probably be a difference in the near term, and post recovery as well. This could easily accelerate the phase out of different fleets. Just like 9/11 got rid of 727’s, DC-10’s, and most turboprops, this could be the gas on the fire that accelerates how both the legacy and regional fleets change. I really don’t see any older fleet at the legacies or regionals as something that stands a good chance of being here in several years. My money is on an airline industry that looks different than what it did a year ago.