Originally Posted by
Hedley
I don’t know what the route structure will look like and how much it will change. We may stop flying 6 flights a day from a hub to LHR in a 767 and run 4 in a 777. We could stop running 6 flights a day on a 175 and run 4 in a 319 or 737-700. We may stop serving very small towns like CLL or HYS. We could end up back to where we were, or with reduced frequency on bigger planes and give up unneeded slots. There will probably be a difference in the near term, and post recovery as well. This could easily accelerate the phase out of different fleets. Just like 9/11 got rid of 727’s, DC-10’s, and most turboprops, this could be the gas on the fire that accelerates how both the legacy and regional fleets change. I really don’t see any older fleet at the legacies or regionals as something that stands a good chance of being here in several years. My money is on an airline industry that looks different than what it did a year ago.
Fuel costs post 9/11 got rid of many older airframes. When oil is 100+ a barrel, it's hard to justify flying an inefficient airplane vs buying a nice new A320/737 that's efficient. Might as well wonder why there's no 737 classics in anyone's fleet.
Airframes get cheaper to operate and larger over time, but the same hub and spoke ideas continue on. Ask United how giving up slots and space at JFK and LGA are working out for them. Unless the airlines absolutely need to save cash to survive, they'll need those slots long term and filling them with cheap packing peanut flights allows the airlines to hold onto those valuable slots.