Originally Posted by
JediCheese
Fuel costs post 9/11 got rid of many older airframes. When oil is 100+ a barrel, it's hard to justify flying an inefficient airplane vs buying a nice new A320/737 that's efficient. Might as well wonder why there's no 737 classics in anyone's fleet.
Airframes get cheaper to operate and larger over time, but the same hub and spoke ideas continue on. Ask United how giving up slots and space at JFK and LGA are working out for them. Unless the airlines absolutely need to save cash to survive, they'll need those slots long term and filling them with cheap packing peanut flights allows the airlines to hold onto those valuable slots.
You are right about the fuel cost being a huge driving force that isn’t there right now. The market is also going to be full of deals on used mainline sized planes for a while and both the used and new markets will have some deals. I still see big changes in the next few years. The 756 is getting old. The Max and 321 orders will take care of the 757 fleet, but there really isn’t a 767 replacement that they like. The 787 is a great machine, but expensive. On the regional side, both 50 seat fleets are aging as well, there isn’t a replacement, and there are only so many 700’s to convert into 550’s. Since scope is maxed out and a good sized chunk of the regional fleet is getting really old with no real replacement option, coupled with how unpopular they are with our customers, the regional side of the house will probably be seeing changes in the next few years as well. Kirby has said that he will be looking for opportunities and weaknesses in our competition as we come out of this. U-ALPA has dug in its heels on enhancing scope protections, not eroding them. United could get more 175’s and improve the regional product by adding a new NB mainline fleet, but so far they aren’t interested in that option. It should be an interesting show.