Originally Posted by
stbloc
Do you realize the stock becomes worthless in chapter 11?
see above.
But, FWIW, unless - like most company execs - you have a sweet deal on ESOPs, I don’t recommend anyone keep much of their investment money in company stock (or even in the same industry). And even ESOP gains should be shifted to something more diversified as soon as feasible.
And the real problem is that as the debt matures, it must be refinanced at new rates, which for American are currently obscenely high. I know that people have the beak about stock buybacks, but for 2019 AA spent four times as much on paying off old bonds than they did on stock buybacks, which they largely did by selling new bonds using the equity of what they had just paid off for collateral. Except the $4+ Billion they refinanced in 2019 and what they will have to be refinancing in the future as it comes due, are bonds they sold at 3.5-4% interest then, while their most recent bond sale was around 12% interest. And even so, they paid as much debt service on the interest in existing relatively low rate bonds in 2019 as they did in share buyback.
And with the rating agencies continuing to lower the rating on AA debt because used aircraft don’t have the value they did pre-COVID, it would be a mistake to think AA is anywhere near out of the woods yet. Right now they are like a person with a lot of credit card debt rolling it over to a new credit card that charges a higher rate. And they can’t NOT roll it over, because they don’t have the earnings or liquidity to stop.
At this point, watch the ratings agencies. If they start upgrading AA bonds, they are betting on recovery. If they keep downgrading them, it will get worse.